Today's read
Technology led a broad decline on 30 October. The Nasdaq Composite fell 2.9% and the S&P 500 1.8%, and the VIX rose to 19.73 from 17.20. Weak guidance from Intel, record AI spending at Amazon and Alphabet, and hot September inflation all fed the move.
The question this site asks is whether a selloff is reaching the parts of the economy that borrow and hire. So far it is not, as far as the data shows. Continuing jobless claims fell to 1,701,000. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.94%, from 5.05% on 28 October. Money moved toward Treasuries and defensive sectors rather than out of everything.
The main gap is timing: the junk-bond spread read calm, but that reading is from 28 October, before this move. Monday's spreads are the real test. A widening toward the 4% watch line would change this read. Corrected 31 October: an index value the site is not licensed to publish was removed, and the VIX source was added.
Takeaways
- A tech and AI-spending repricing, not yet a credit event.
- Treasury yields fell as stocks fell.
- Watch Monday's credit spreads.
Sources: US Treasury daily par yield curve (primary) · Full note: Tech sold off on 30 October (primary) · Yahoo Finance index closes (secondary) · Cboe Global Markets, CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) via FRED (VIXCLS) (primary)