Dated topic notes. Each gives its current read, the evidence behind it, and what would change it. Analysis is labelled as such; every figure keeps its source.
Energy & inflation
Eight months into the Iran war, physical oil is scarce and diesel sits near its high, while credit markets stay calm. History and today's credit data make deflation the least supported of three paths, and the midterms on 11-03 are the hinge.
Jobs & automation
AI displacement is showing up in entry-level hiring and a record-low labor share, not in mass layoffs. The largest employers cutting staff this year mostly do not blame AI, and aggregate unemployment fell.
Data-center buildouts
Texas and New York have paused data-center permitting at the state level, one by agency action and one by executive order. Local pauses run past a hundred jurisdictions by tracker counts, but several are unverified.