signals.casa macro signals, measured daily
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Signals

Each signal is a public data series with a dated reading. Where a threshold exists, the reading is compared with it and read as calm, watch or triggered. Thresholds are proposals still being calibrated, not forecasts; some series are context only, with no threshold on purpose.

Measured Oct 29, 2026, 6:32 a.m. ET (10:32 UTC) from public data: FRED, EIA, BLS, SEC, CISA and the others named beside each signal.

How to read a signal
Signal condition
CalmWatchTriggered
The latest reading compared with its thresholds. "Triggered" is this site's word for the upstream status "fired"; the calculation is unchanged.
Designation
Context only
No threshold is set on purpose: a reading worth knowing, with no judgment attached.
Availability
Unavailable
No reading could be taken on this build; it is never shown as calm. Value withheld means the data owner does not permit reproduction: the condition is computed from the value, and the value stays unpublished.
Freshness
Stale
The daily check found the observation older than its release schedule allows. A condition shown beside it is the last known one.
Provenance
Each signal names its source; open Details for the series name, the threshold rule, the period and a link to the publisher.

Credit stress

SignalLatest readingSignal stateObservedDetails
Junk-bond spreadHow much extra yield risky companies must pay to borrowSource: ICE Data Indices, LLC (ICE BofA US High Yield Index OAS), via FREDValue withheldCalm2026-10-27
Series
Junk-bond spread (ICE BofA US High Yield OAS)
Thresholds
Watch at or above 4%; triggered at or above 5.5%, boundaries included. Compared with the latest reading, observed 2026-10-27. Thresholds are proposals still being calibrated, not forecasts.
Availability
Value withheld: ICE Data Indices does not permit reproduction without written permission. The condition is computed from the value, which stays unpublished.
Freshness
Not flagged stale by the daily check for this series' release schedule.
Observed
2026-10-27
Source
ICE Data Indices, LLC (ICE BofA US High Yield Index OAS), via FRED
Investment-grade spreadThe same, for safer companiesSource: ICE Data Indices, LLC (ICE BofA US Corporate Index OAS), via FREDValue withheldCalm2026-10-27
Series
Investment-grade spread (ICE BofA US Corporate OAS)
Thresholds
Watch at or above 1.3%; triggered at or above 1.8%, boundaries included. Compared with the latest reading, observed 2026-10-27. Thresholds are proposals still being calibrated, not forecasts.
Availability
Value withheld: ICE Data Indices does not permit reproduction without written permission. The condition is computed from the value, which stays unpublished.
Freshness
Not flagged stale by the daily check for this series' release schedule.
Observed
2026-10-27
Source
ICE Data Indices, LLC (ICE BofA US Corporate Index OAS), via FRED
Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions IndexAbove zero means money is tighter than averageSource: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, National Financial Conditions Index, via FRED−0.487Calm2026-10-23
Thresholds
Watch at or above −0.25; triggered at or above 0, boundaries included. Compared with the latest reading, observed 2026-10-23. Thresholds are proposals still being calibrated, not forecasts.
Freshness
Not flagged stale by the daily check for this series' release schedule.
Observed
2026-10-23
Source
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, National Financial Conditions Index, via FRED
Credit card loan delinquency rateShare of commercial-bank credit card loans that are delinquentSource: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, credit card delinquency rate (DRCCLACBS), via FRED2.85%Calm2026-04-01
Thresholds
Watch at or above 3.5%; triggered at or above 4.5%, boundaries included. Compared with the latest reading, observed 2026-04-01. Thresholds are proposals still being calibrated, not forecasts.
Freshness
Not flagged stale by the daily check for this series' release schedule.
Observed
2026-04-01
Source
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, credit card delinquency rate (DRCCLACBS), via FRED
Banks tightening business loan standardsNet share of domestic banks tightening loans to large and middle-market firmsSource: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Senior Loan Officer Survey (DRTSCILM), via FRED0%Calm2026-07-01
Thresholds
Watch at or above 20%; triggered at or above 40%, boundaries included. Compared with the latest reading, observed 2026-07-01. Thresholds are proposals still being calibrated, not forecasts.
Freshness
Not flagged stale by the daily check for this series' release schedule.
Observed
2026-07-01
Source
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Senior Loan Officer Survey (DRTSCILM), via FRED

Rates

SignalLatest readingSignal stateObservedDetails
10-year Treasury yieldThe rate most loans and valuations are priced offSource: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, H.15, via FRED4.99%Calm2026-10-27
Thresholds
Watch at or above 5.25%; triggered at or above 5.5%, boundaries included. Compared with the latest reading, observed 2026-10-27. Thresholds are proposals still being calibrated, not forecasts.
Freshness
Not flagged stale by the daily check for this series' release schedule.
Observed
2026-10-27
Source
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, H.15, via FRED
30-year Treasury yieldLong-term borrowing costSource: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, H.15, via FRED5.3%Context only2026-10-27
Thresholds
Context only: no threshold is set, so this reading carries no judgment.
Freshness
Not flagged stale by the daily check for this series' release schedule.
Observed
2026-10-27
Source
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, H.15, via FRED
10-year minus 2-year Treasury spreadBelow zero (inverted) has come before recessionsSource: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 10-Year minus 2-Year Treasury (T10Y2Y), FRED0.38 ptsCalm2026-10-28
Thresholds
Watch at or below 0.1 pts; triggered at or below 0 pts, boundaries included. Compared with the latest reading, observed 2026-10-28. Thresholds are proposals still being calibrated, not forecasts.
Freshness
Not flagged stale by the daily check for this series' release schedule.
Observed
2026-10-28
Source
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 10-Year minus 2-Year Treasury (T10Y2Y), FRED
10-year real yieldInterest after inflation; gold tends to fall when this risesSource: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, H.15, via FRED2.64%Context only2026-10-27
Series
10-year real yield (TIPS)
Thresholds
Context only: no threshold is set, so this reading carries no judgment.
Freshness
Not flagged stale by the daily check for this series' release schedule.
Observed
2026-10-27
Source
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, H.15, via FRED
10-year Treasury term premiumModel estimate of the premium for holding a long-term TreasurySource: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Kim-Wright 10-year term premium (THREEFYTP10), via FRED0.936%Calm2026-10-23
Series
10-year Treasury term premium (Kim-Wright)
Thresholds
Watch at or above 1%; triggered at or above 1.5%, boundaries included. Compared with the latest reading, observed 2026-10-23. Thresholds are proposals still being calibrated, not forecasts.
Freshness
Not flagged stale by the daily check for this series' release schedule.
Observed
2026-10-23
Source
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Kim-Wright 10-year term premium (THREEFYTP10), via FRED
10-year breakeven inflation rateTreasury yield minus inflation-protected Treasury yieldSource: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate (T10YIE), FRED2.38%Calm2026-10-28
Thresholds
Watch at or above 2.75%; triggered at or above 3%, boundaries included. Compared with the latest reading, observed 2026-10-28. Thresholds are proposals still being calibrated, not forecasts.
Freshness
Not flagged stale by the daily check for this series' release schedule.
Observed
2026-10-28
Source
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate (T10YIE), FRED

Jobs

SignalLatest readingSignal stateObservedDetails
Initial jobless claims, four-week averageNew unemployment insurance claims averaged over four weeksSource: U.S. Employment and Training Administration, initial claims 4-week average (IC4WSA), via FRED197,750 claimsCalm2026-10-17
Thresholds
Watch at or above 260,000 claims; triggered at or above 300,000 claims, boundaries included. Compared with the latest reading, observed 2026-10-17. Thresholds are proposals still being calibrated, not forecasts.
Freshness
Not flagged stale by the daily check for this series' release schedule.
Observed
2026-10-17
Source
U.S. Employment and Training Administration, initial claims 4-week average (IC4WSA), via FRED
Continuing jobless claimsPeople claiming another week of unemployment insuranceSource: U.S. Employment and Training Administration, continued claims (CCSA), via FRED1,728,000 claimsCalm2026-10-10
Thresholds
Watch at or above 2,000,000 claims; triggered at or above 2,200,000 claims, boundaries included. Compared with the latest reading, observed 2026-10-10. Thresholds are proposals still being calibrated, not forecasts.
Freshness
Not flagged stale by the daily check for this series' release schedule.
Observed
2026-10-10
Source
U.S. Employment and Training Administration, continued claims (CCSA), via FRED
Real-time Sahm recession indicatorRise in three-month average unemployment from its previous twelve-month lowSource: Claudia Sahm, Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMREALTIME), via FRED0 percentage pointsCalm2026-09-01
Thresholds
Watch at or above 0.3 percentage points; triggered at or above 0.5 percentage points, boundaries included. Compared with the latest reading, observed 2026-09-01. Thresholds are proposals still being calibrated, not forecasts.
Freshness
Not flagged stale by the daily check for this series' release schedule.
Observed
2026-09-01
Source
Claudia Sahm, Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMREALTIME), via FRED

Power

SignalLatest readingSignal stateObservedDetails
State-level data-center pauses in effectDated count of state-level pauses recorded in the moratorium watchSource: signals.casa data-center pause watch, from state orders (see the Data-center pauses section)2 statesCalm2026-10-27
Thresholds
Watch at or above 3 states; triggered at or above 5 states, boundaries included. Compared with the latest reading, observed 2026-10-27. Thresholds are proposals still being calibrated, not forecasts.
Freshness
Not flagged stale by the daily check for this series' release schedule.
Observed
2026-10-27
Source
signals.casa data-center pause watch, from state orders (see the Data-center pauses section)
Henry Hub natural gas spot priceUS benchmark natural gas price, not an electricity tariffSource: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Henry Hub spot (DHHNGSP), via FRED$2.76 /MMBtuContext only2026-10-27
Thresholds
Context only: no threshold is set, so this reading carries no judgment.
Freshness
Not flagged stale by the daily check for this series' release schedule.
Observed
2026-10-27
Source
U.S. Energy Information Administration, Henry Hub spot (DHHNGSP), via FRED
US power demand, seven-day average year over yearChange in contiguous-US demand across seven complete UTC days versus a year earlierSource: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Hourly Electric Grid Monitor (EIA API)1.165 % year over yearContext only2026-10-28
Thresholds
Context only: no threshold is set, so this reading carries no judgment.
Freshness
Not flagged stale by the daily check for this series' release schedule.
Observed
2026-10-28
Source
U.S. Energy Information Administration, Hourly Electric Grid Monitor (EIA API)
US commercial electricity price, year over yearChange in the national commercial retail electricity price from the same month last yearSource: U.S. Energy Information Administration, retail sales of electricity, commercial (EIA API)4.326 % year over yearCalm2026-08-01
Thresholds
Watch at or above 8 % year over year; triggered at or above 12 % year over year, boundaries included. Compared with the latest reading, observed 2026-08-01. Thresholds are proposals still being calibrated, not forecasts.
Freshness
Not flagged stale by the daily check for this series' release schedule.
Observed
2026-08-01
Source
U.S. Energy Information Administration, retail sales of electricity, commercial (EIA API)
US industrial electricity price, year over yearChange in the national industrial retail electricity price from the same month last yearSource: U.S. Energy Information Administration, retail sales of electricity, industrial (EIA API)7.35 % year over yearCalm2026-08-01
Thresholds
Watch at or above 8 % year over year; triggered at or above 12 % year over year, boundaries included. Compared with the latest reading, observed 2026-08-01. Thresholds are proposals still being calibrated, not forecasts.
Freshness
Not flagged stale by the daily check for this series' release schedule.
Observed
2026-08-01
Source
U.S. Energy Information Administration, retail sales of electricity, industrial (EIA API)

Energy

SignalLatest readingSignal stateObservedDetails
US retail diesel priceFuel cost for trucks and farms; a tax on the economy when highSource: U.S. Energy Information Administration, via FRED$6.352/galContext only2026-10-26
Series
US retail diesel price (EIA, weekly)
Thresholds
Context only: no threshold is set, so this reading carries no judgment.
Freshness
Not flagged stale by the daily check for this series' release schedule.
Observed
2026-10-26
Source
U.S. Energy Information Administration, via FRED

AI build-out

SignalLatest readingSignal stateObservedDetails
Semiconductor and electronic component output, year over yearChange from the same month last year in US semiconductor and electronic component productionSource: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, G.17 industrial production, semiconductors (IPG3344S), via FRED19.899 % year over yearCalm2026-09-01
Thresholds
Watch at or below 0 % year over year; triggered at or below −5 % year over year, boundaries included. Compared with the latest reading, observed 2026-09-01. Thresholds are proposals still being calibrated, not forecasts.
Freshness
Not flagged stale by the daily check for this series' release schedule.
Observed
2026-09-01
Source
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, G.17 industrial production, semiconductors (IPG3344S), via FRED

Debt supply

SignalLatest readingSignal stateObservedDetails
Federal interest payments as a share of tax receiptsBEA federal interest payments divided by current tax receipts for the same quarterSource: computed from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis federal interest payments and current tax receipts (A091RC1Q027SBEA / W006RC1Q027SBEA), via FRED33.554%Context only2026-04-01
Thresholds
Context only: no threshold is set, so this reading carries no judgment.
Freshness
Not flagged stale by the daily check for this series' release schedule.
Observed
2026-04-01
Source
computed from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis federal interest payments and current tax receipts (A091RC1Q027SBEA / W006RC1Q027SBEA), via FRED
10-year Treasury auction bid-to-coverBids relative to awards at the latest nominal ten-year note auction, including reopeningsSource: U.S. Treasury, TreasuryDirect auction results (federal work, 17 U.S.C. 105; terms page not readable 2026-10-27)2.77 ratioCalm2026-10-07
Thresholds
Watch at or below 2.4 ratio; triggered at or below 2.25 ratio, boundaries included. Compared with the latest reading, observed 2026-10-07. Thresholds are proposals still being calibrated, not forecasts.
Freshness
Not flagged stale by the daily check for this series' release schedule.
Observed
2026-10-07
Source
U.S. Treasury, TreasuryDirect auction results (federal work, 17 U.S.C. 105; terms page not readable 2026-10-27)

Cyber

SignalLatest readingSignal stateObservedDetails
CISA advisory feed publications in 30 daysUnique entries published in the all-advisories feed over thirty calendar days; unavailable until collection covers the windowSource: CISA cybersecurity advisories (federal work, 17 U.S.C. 105; policy pages blocked automated reads 2026-10-27)—No reading on this buildUnavailable—
Thresholds
No threshold is set for this series yet.
Availability
No reading on this build: the source could not be read. The signal returns when the source responds; until then it is not shown as calm.
Source
CISA cybersecurity advisories (federal work, 17 U.S.C. 105; policy pages blocked automated reads 2026-10-27) · www.cisa.gov
CVEs published in 30 daysNVD publication-date count, including entries subsequently rejectedSource: This product uses data from the NVD API but is not endorsed or certified by the NVD (NIST; federal work, 17 U.S.C. 105)16,891 CVEsContext only2026-10-29
Series
CVEs published in 30 days (NVD)
Thresholds
Context only: no threshold is set, so this reading carries no judgment.
Freshness
Not flagged stale by the daily check for this series' release schedule.
Observed
2026-10-29
Source
This product uses data from the NVD API but is not endorsed or certified by the NVD (NIST; federal work, 17 U.S.C. 105) · services.nvd.nist.gov
KEV additions in 30 daysNew additions to CISA's known-exploited catalogSource: CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog33Calm2026-10-28
Thresholds
Watch at or above 39; triggered at or above 52, boundaries included. Compared with the latest reading, observed 2026-10-28. Thresholds are proposals still being calibrated, not forecasts.
Calibration
1.5x / 2x median of twelve completed months
Freshness
Not flagged stale by the daily check for this series' release schedule.
Observed
2026-10-28
Source
CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog · www.cisa.gov
NVD publication to KEV lagProxy for disclosure-to-known-exploitation listing, not patch-to-mass-exploitation timeSource: CISA KEV and NIST National Vulnerability Database9 daysContext only2026-10-28
Thresholds
Context only: no threshold is set, so this reading carries no judgment.
Calibration
incomplete trailing 12 months
Freshness
Not flagged stale by the daily check for this series' release schedule.
Observed
2026-10-28
Source
CISA KEV and NIST National Vulnerability Database · www.cisa.gov
8-K Item 1.05 filings in 30 daysAll filers; unique original and amended 8-K accessions with an exact Item 1.05 codeSource: SEC EDGAR0 filingsContext only2026-10-29
Thresholds
Context only: no threshold is set, so this reading carries no judgment.
Calibration
nonpositive baseline; proportional thresholds need confirmation
Freshness
Not flagged stale by the daily check for this series' release schedule.
Observed
2026-10-29
Source
SEC EDGAR · efts.sec.gov
Recent KEV EPSS median percentileDaily EPSS percentile for recent KEV additions; detail also shows new-CVE high-EPSS shareSource: FIRST, Exploit Prediction Scoring System (EPSS)—No reading on this buildUnavailable—
Thresholds
No threshold is set for this series yet.
Availability
No reading on this build: the source could not be read. The signal returns when the source responds; until then it is not shown as calm.
Source
FIRST, Exploit Prediction Scoring System (EPSS) · api.first.org
Marsh US cyber rate changeDated US cyber insurance rate change; not the global compositeSource: Marsh Global Insurance Market Index0%Context only2026-09-30Q3 2026
Thresholds
Context only: no threshold is set, so this reading carries no judgment.
Calibration
manual series; needs twelve-month calibration and confirmation
Period
Q3 2026
Date basis
quarter end; live observation date recorded separately
Freshness
Not flagged stale by the daily check for this series' release schedule.
Observed
2026-09-30
Checked
2026-10-29
Source
Marsh Global Insurance Market Index · www.marsh.com
CIAB cyber premium changeDated quarterly cyber renewal premium changeSource: The Council of Insurance Agents & Brokers (CIAB) market survey−3.2%Context only2026-08-18Q2 2026
Thresholds
Context only: no threshold is set, so this reading carries no judgment.
Calibration
manual series; needs twelve-month calibration and confirmation
Period
Q2 2026
Basis
average cyber premium change at renewal reported by member brokers; distinct from Marsh rate index
Freshness
Not flagged stale by the daily check for this series' release schedule.
Observed
2026-08-18
Checked
2026-10-22
Source
The Council of Insurance Agents & Brokers (CIAB) market survey · www.ciab.com
NAIC US cyber direct written premiumsAnnual direct written business, including alien surplus linesSource: NAIC Report on the Cyber Insurance Market$9.46 bnContext only2026-10-212025 calendar year
Thresholds
Context only: no threshold is set, so this reading carries no judgment.
Calibration
manual series; needs twelve-month calibration and confirmation
Period
2025 calendar year
Basis
US direct written business including alien surplus lines; rounded approximately
Freshness
Not flagged stale by the daily check for this series' release schedule.
Observed
2026-10-21
Checked
2026-10-22
Source
NAIC Report on the Cyber Insurance Market · content.naic.org
NAIC cyber loss ratioAnnual industry-wide loss ratioSource: NAIC Report on the Cyber Insurance Market53%Context only2026-10-212025 calendar year
Thresholds
Context only: no threshold is set, so this reading carries no judgment.
Calibration
manual series; needs twelve-month calibration and confirmation
Period
2025 calendar year
Basis
industry-wide loss ratio as reported, not a model estimate
Freshness
Not flagged stale by the daily check for this series' release schedule.
Observed
2026-10-21
Checked
2026-10-22
Source
NAIC Report on the Cyber Insurance Market · content.naic.org
Artemis cyber bond spreadDated spread for a named cyber bond and tranche; not an aggregate indexSource: Artemis.bm8.5%last readingContext onlyStale2025-12-01East Lane Re VII Series 2026-1 Class B; issued December 2025
Thresholds
Context only: no threshold is set, so this reading carries no judgment.
Calibration
manual series; needs twelve-month calibration and confirmation
Period
East Lane Re VII Series 2026-1 Class B; issued December 2025
Basis
final initial risk interest spread; specific aggregate cyber tranche, not market yield; source dates issue to month only
Date basis
first day of source issue month, conservative freshness bound; exact publication day unavailable
Freshness
Stale: the daily check found this observation older than its release schedule allows, so the condition shown is the last known one.
Observed
2025-12-01
Checked
2026-10-22
Source
Artemis.bm · www.artemis.bm