AI build-out roundup, 15-29 October

Analysis and information

What changed

• Big tech now rents outside capacity, and some of it slipped. On its 2026-10-28 call, Microsoft said customer demand continues to exceed available supply, while some third-party capacity deliveries expected in the quarter were delayed and some GPU-as-a-Service contracts moved to H2 of its fiscal year. Google said it started using third-party compute at the end of Q3 and will ramp it in Q4. AI compute host shares fell 4-6% after hours that evening.
• Spending came in under forecasts. Microsoft and Google both spent less than expected in Q3. Google kept its 2026 capex range at $195-205B and said 2027 will increase significantly. Meta narrowed its 2026 range to $135-145B.
• Financing is changing shape. IREN borrowed $363M against GPU servers already in service (2026-10-28). SpaceX signed a binding commitment for a roughly $40B GPU finance lease (2026-10-24). Galaxy's long-term notes rose to $6.31B from $2.43B at the end of 2025, and its 830 MW second Helios site has no tenant yet.

Supply

• Seagate (2026-10-27): revenue $4.233B, up 61%. Most nearline exabytes are under long-term agreements through 2028, some to 2030.
• Memory prices: TrendForce forecasts Q4 DRAM contract prices up 10-15% after 13-18% in Q3, and NAND up 15-20%.
• ASML (2026-10-14): planned 2027-28 supply will not fully meet demand.
• TSMC (2026-10-15): Q3 revenue $46.72B, up 41%; 2nm already 8% of wafer revenue.
• GlobalFoundries (2026-10-14): selected to run two new fabs in Malta, New York, funded by up to $21B from Japan, with the first due in 2029.
• Celestica (2026-10-26): Q3 revenue $5.83B, up 83%; a first 2027 outlook of $40.0B revenue; 2026 free cash flow outlook cut to $460M.

Power and permits

• Texas: the governor ordered a pause on data-center permits on 2026-09-21; the state environmental agency confirmed it on 10-19. There is no end date.
• AEP (2026-10-28): 15 GW of new load commitments in Q3 and 84 GW of contracted load expected by 2031.

Space and autonomy

• SpaceX (2026-10-20): Q3 revenue $14.6B, up 161%.
• Tesla (2026-10-21): revenue $28.0B, flat; energy revenue $2.88B, down 16%. Both companies have special committees looking at a combination; no terms are agreed.

What to watch next

Reports: Amazon 10-29, Talen 11-03, AppLovin, Ormat and GlobalFoundries 11-04, IREN, Core Scientific and Cloudflare 11-05, TeraWulf 11-06, CoreWeave 11-10, Nebius about 11-11 (not confirmed). For each AI compute host, the questions are megawatts signed and how new money is raised: debt, customer prepayments or new shares.