# Signals

> Measured 2026-10-29 10:32 UTC from public data. Status ok reads as Calm and fired as Triggered on the page; context means no threshold is set. Withheld values are not published.

| Signal | Reading | Status | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Junk-bond spread (ICE BofA US High Yield OAS) | withheld | ok | 2026-10-27 | ICE Data Indices, LLC (ICE BofA US High Yield Index OAS), via FRED |
| Investment-grade spread (ICE BofA US Corporate OAS) | withheld | ok | 2026-10-27 | ICE Data Indices, LLC (ICE BofA US Corporate Index OAS), via FRED |
| Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index | −0.487 | ok | 2026-10-23 | Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, National Financial Conditions Index, via FRED |
| 10-year Treasury yield | 4.99% | ok | 2026-10-27 | Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, H.15, via FRED |
| 30-year Treasury yield | 5.3% | context | 2026-10-27 | Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, H.15, via FRED |
| 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread | 0.38 pts | ok | 2026-10-28 | Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 10-Year minus 2-Year Treasury (T10Y2Y), FRED |
| 10-year real yield (TIPS) | 2.64% | context | 2026-10-27 | Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, H.15, via FRED |
| US retail diesel price (EIA, weekly) | $6.352/gal | context | 2026-10-26 | U.S. Energy Information Administration, via FRED |
| Federal interest payments as a share of tax receipts | 33.554% | context | 2026-04-01 | computed from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis federal interest payments and current tax receipts (A091RC1Q027SBEA / W006RC1Q027SBEA), via FRED |
| 10-year Treasury auction bid-to-cover | 2.77 ratio | ok | 2026-10-07 | U.S. Treasury, TreasuryDirect auction results (federal work, 17 U.S.C. 105; terms page not readable 2026-10-27) |
| CISA advisory feed publications in 30 days | unavailable | UNAVAILABLE |  | CISA cybersecurity advisories (federal work, 17 U.S.C. 105; policy pages blocked automated reads 2026-10-27) |
| CVEs published in 30 days (NVD) | 16,891 CVEs | context | 2026-10-29 | This product uses data from the NVD API but is not endorsed or certified by the NVD (NIST; federal work, 17 U.S.C. 105) |
| State-level data-center pauses in effect | 2 states | ok | 2026-10-27 | signals.casa data-center pause watch, from state orders (see the Data-center pauses section) |
| KEV additions in 30 days | 33 | ok | 2026-10-28 | CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog |
| NVD publication to KEV lag | 9 days | context | 2026-10-28 | CISA KEV and NIST National Vulnerability Database |
| 8-K Item 1.05 filings in 30 days | 0 filings | context | 2026-10-29 | SEC EDGAR |
| Recent KEV EPSS median percentile | unavailable | UNAVAILABLE | 2026-10-28 | FIRST, Exploit Prediction Scoring System (EPSS) |
| Marsh US cyber rate change | 0% | context | 2026-09-30 | Marsh Global Insurance Market Index |
| CIAB cyber premium change | −3.2% | context | 2026-08-18 | The Council of Insurance Agents & Brokers (CIAB) market survey |
| NAIC US cyber direct written premiums | $9.46 bn | context | 2026-10-21 | NAIC Report on the Cyber Insurance Market |
| NAIC cyber loss ratio | 53% | context | 2026-10-21 | NAIC Report on the Cyber Insurance Market |
| Artemis cyber bond spread | 8.5% | STALE | 2025-12-01 | Artemis.bm |
| Henry Hub natural gas spot price | $2.76 /MMBtu | context | 2026-10-27 | U.S. Energy Information Administration, Henry Hub spot (DHHNGSP), via FRED |
| Initial jobless claims, four-week average | 197,750 claims | ok | 2026-10-17 | U.S. Employment and Training Administration, initial claims 4-week average (IC4WSA), via FRED |
| Continuing jobless claims | 1,728,000 claims | ok | 2026-10-10 | U.S. Employment and Training Administration, continued claims (CCSA), via FRED |
| Real-time Sahm recession indicator | 0 percentage points | ok | 2026-09-01 | Claudia Sahm, Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMREALTIME), via FRED |
| 10-year Treasury term premium (Kim-Wright) | 0.936% | ok | 2026-10-23 | Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Kim-Wright 10-year term premium (THREEFYTP10), via FRED |
| 10-year breakeven inflation rate | 2.38% | ok | 2026-10-28 | Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate (T10YIE), FRED |
| Semiconductor and electronic component output, year over year | 19.899 % year over year | ok | 2026-09-01 | Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, G.17 industrial production, semiconductors (IPG3344S), via FRED |
| Credit card loan delinquency rate | 2.85% | ok | 2026-04-01 | Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, credit card delinquency rate (DRCCLACBS), via FRED |
| Banks tightening business loan standards | 0% | ok | 2026-07-01 | Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Senior Loan Officer Survey (DRTSCILM), via FRED |
| US power demand, seven-day average year over year | 1.165 % year over year | context | 2026-10-28 | U.S. Energy Information Administration, Hourly Electric Grid Monitor (EIA API) |
| US commercial electricity price, year over year | 4.326 % year over year | ok | 2026-08-01 | U.S. Energy Information Administration, retail sales of electricity, commercial (EIA API) |
| US industrial electricity price, year over year | 7.35 % year over year | ok | 2026-08-01 | U.S. Energy Information Administration, retail sales of electricity, industrial (EIA API) |