Market note # AI build-out roundup, 15-29 October Two weeks of results and filings across AI compute hosts, memory, chips, power and platforms, with what changed and what to watch. Updated Oct 29, 2026 Information and analysis only, not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. The author may own securities discussed. Researched and drafted with AI agents. Every figure is taken from a source cited on the page. Analysis and information ## What changed - **Big tech now rents outside capacity, and some of it slipped.** On its 2026-10-28 call, Microsoft said customer demand continues to exceed available supply, while some third-party capacity deliveries expected in the quarter were delayed and some GPU-as-a-Service contracts moved to H2 of its fiscal year. Google said it started using third-party compute at the end of Q3 and will ramp it in Q4. AI compute host shares fell 4-6% after hours that evening. - **Spending came in under forecasts.** Microsoft and Google both spent less than expected in Q3. Google kept its 2026 capex range at $195-205B and said 2027 will increase significantly. Meta narrowed its 2026 range to $135-145B. - **Financing is changing shape.** IREN borrowed $363M against GPU servers already in service (2026-10-28). SpaceX signed a binding commitment for a roughly $40B GPU finance lease (2026-10-24). Galaxy's long-term notes rose to $6.31B from $2.43B at the end of 2025, and its 830 MW second Helios site has no tenant yet. ## Supply - **Seagate** (2026-10-27): revenue $4.233B, up 61%. Most nearline exabytes are under long-term agreements through 2028, some to 2030. - **Memory prices**: TrendForce forecasts Q4 DRAM contract prices up 10-15% after 13-18% in Q3, and NAND up 15-20%. - **ASML** (2026-10-14): planned 2027-28 supply will not fully meet demand. - **TSMC** (2026-10-15): Q3 revenue $46.72B, up 41%; 2nm already 8% of wafer revenue. - **GlobalFoundries** (2026-10-14): selected to run two new fabs in Malta, New York, funded by up to $21B from Japan, with the first due in 2029. - **Celestica** (2026-10-26): Q3 revenue $5.83B, up 83%; a first 2027 outlook of $40.0B revenue; 2026 free cash flow outlook cut to $460M. ## Power and permits - **Texas**: the governor ordered a pause on data-center permits on 2026-09-21; the state environmental agency confirmed it on 10-19. There is no end date. - **AEP** (2026-10-28): 15 GW of new load commitments in Q3 and 84 GW of contracted load expected by 2031. ## Space and autonomy - **SpaceX** (2026-10-20): Q3 revenue $14.6B, up 161%. - **Tesla** (2026-10-21): revenue $28.0B, flat; energy revenue $2.88B, down 16%. Both companies have special committees looking at a combination; no terms are agreed. ## What to watch next Reports: Amazon 10-29, Talen 11-03, AppLovin, Ormat and GlobalFoundries 11-04, IREN, Core Scientific and Cloudflare 11-05, TeraWulf 11-06, CoreWeave 11-10, Nebius about 11-11 (not confirmed). For each AI compute host, the questions are megawatts signed and how new money is raised: debt, customer prepayments or new shares. ## Symbols in this note - [Microsoft (MSFT)](/research/tickers/msft) - [Alphabet (GOOGL)](/research/tickers/googl) - [Meta Platforms (META)](/research/tickers/meta) - [IREN (IREN)](/research/tickers/iren) - [Nebius Group (NBIS)](/research/tickers/nbis) - [Galaxy Digital (GLXY)](/research/tickers/glxy) - [CoreWeave (CRWV)](/research/tickers/crwv) - [Seagate Technology (STX)](/research/tickers/stx) - [Micron Technology (MU)](/research/tickers/mu) - [ASML (ASML)](/research/tickers/asml) - [TSMC (TSM)](/research/tickers/tsm) - [GlobalFoundries (GFS)](/research/tickers/gfs) - [Celestica (CLS)](/research/tickers/cls) - [Talen Energy (TLN)](/research/tickers/tln) - [Oklo (OKLO)](/research/tickers/oklo) - [Ormat Technologies (ORA)](/research/tickers/ora) - [American Electric Power (AEP)](/research/tickers/aep) - [NextEra Energy (NEE)](/research/tickers/nee) - [Tesla (TSLA)](/research/tickers/tsla) - [SpaceX (SPCX)](/research/tickers/spcx) ## Sources Primary means the publisher of the data or the filing; secondary means press or an aggregator. - [Microsoft FY27 Q1 earnings call transcript](https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/10/29/microsoft-msft-q1-2027-earnings-call-transcript/)Secondary 2026-10-29 - [Alphabet Q3 2026 earnings call transcript](https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/10/29/alphabet-googl-q3-2026-earnings-call-transcript/)Secondary 2026-10-29 - [Galaxy Digital Q3 2026 results](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001859392/000185939226000108/glxy-20260930xpressrelease.htm)Primary 2026-10-27 - [IREN equipment financing](https://mugglehead.com/iren-limited-wingspire-ai-equipment-refinancing)Secondary 2026-10-28 - [Seagate fiscal Q1 2027 results](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001137789/000113778926000300/stxq12027pressreleasefinan.htm)Primary 2026-10-27 - [TrendForce: 4Q26 memory contract prices](https://www.trendforce.com/presscenter/news/20260930-13258.html)Primary 2026-09-30 - [ASML Q3 2026 results](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000937966/000162828026065813/pressreleasefinancialresul.htm)Primary 2026-10-14 - [TSMC Q3 2026 results](https://pr.tsmc.com/english/news/3346)Primary 2026-10-15 - [GlobalFoundries selected to operate two New York fabs](https://gf.com/news-and-events/news/globalfoundries-selected-to-operate-two-new-semiconductor-fabs-in-new-york-under-landmark-us-japan-initiative/)Primary 2026-10-14 - [Celestica Q3 2026 results](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001030894/000103089426000049/cls-20260930prcondensedfs.htm)Primary 2026-10-26 - [Texas data-center permit pause](https://www.texastribune.org/2026/10/20/data-center-permits-tceq-abbott-texas-pause/)Secondary 2026-10-20 - [Tesla Q3 2026 update](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000162828026066738/exhibit9914.htm)Primary 2026-10-21 - [SpaceX 8-K: GPU finance lease commitment](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000110465926118614/tm2628247d1_8k.htm)Primary 2026-10-26 [All research](/research)[All signals](/signals)[Back to today's read](/)